BUSINESS
KLA Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets process control, process-enabling, and yield management solutions for the semiconductor and related electronics industries worldwide. It operates through four segments: Semiconductor Process Control; Specialty Semiconductor Process; PCB, Display and Component Inspection; and Other. The company offers integrated circuit (IC) manufacturing products that comprises wafer inspection and review, and metrology; wafer and substrate defect inspection and metrology; reticle defect inspection and metrology; chemical/materials quality analysis; in situ process management and wafer handling diagnostics for IC and original equipment manufacturer (OEM) manufacturing; software products to provide run-time process control, defect excursion identification, process corrections, and defect classification; and refurbished and remanufactured products.
INVESTMENT RATING
KLAC is expected to continue to be a major Value Builder reflecting capital returns that are forecasted to exceed the cost of capital.
KLA has a current Value Trend Rating of A (Highest Rating).
The Value Trend Rating reflects inconsistent signals from PTR’s two proprietary measures of a stock’s attractiveness. KLA has a neutral Appreciation Score of 50 but a very high Power Rating of 98, leading to the Highest Value Trend Rating.
KLA’s stock is selling well below targeted value. The current stock price of $683.90 compares to targeted value 12 months forward of $894.
This neutral appreciation potential results in an appreciation score of 50 (50% of the universe has greater appreciation potential.)
KLA has a Power Rating of 98. (This very high Power Rating indicates that KLA has a better chance of achieving attractive investment performance over the near to intermediate term than all but 2% of companies in the universe.)
Factors contributing to this very high Power Rating include: recent price action has been extremely favorable; the Optical Instruments & Lenses comparison group is in a strong phase currently; and the recent trend in KLA’s earnings estimates has been favorable.
INVESTMENT PROFILE
KLA’s financial strength is exceptional. Financial strength rating is 100.
Relative to the S&P 500 Composite, KLA Corp has significant Growth characteristics; its appeal is likely to be to investors heavily oriented toward Capital Gains; the perception is that KLAC is normal risk. Relative weaknesses include: high stock price volatility, and high financial leverage. KLA’s valuation is high: moderate dividend yield, high P/E ratio, and high price/book ratio. KLAC has high market capitalization.
CURRENT SIGNALS
KLA’s current operations are eroding. Return on equity is falling, reflecting: falling asset utilization; declining pretax margin; falling tax keep rate; and falling leverage.
KLA’s current technical position is very strong. The stock price is in a 16.8 month up move. The stock has appreciated 172.1% from its prior low. The stock price is above its 200 day moving average which is in an uptrend.
ALERTS
Positive development: significant quarterly earnings acceleration occurred. Negative development: significant quarterly sales deceleration occurred.
The stock is currently rated A.
On 3/15/24, KLA Corp (NASDAQ: KLAC) stock declined modestly by -1.2%, closing at $683.90. Moreover, this decline was accompanied by unusually high trading volume at 162% of normal. Relative to the market the stock has been exceptionally strong over the last nine months but has declined -5.4% during the last week.
CASH FLOW
In 2023, KLA generated a significant increase in cash of +$535 million (+20%). Sources of cash were larger than uses. Cash generated from 2023 EBITDA totaled +$4,454 million. Non-operating sources contributed +$47 million (+1% of EBITDA). Cash taxes consumed -$531 million (-12% of EBITDA). Re-investment in the business amounted to -$557 million (-13% of EBITDA). On a net basis, debt investors received -$1,008 million (-23% of EBITDA) while equity investors pulled out -$1,869 million (-42% of EBITDA).
KLA’s Non-operating Income, %EBITDA has exhibited a volatile overall uptrend over the period. This improvement was accompanied by stability for the Kla Peer Group. In most years, KLA was in the top quartile and second quartile. Currently, KLA is at the upper quartile at +1% of EBITDA (+$47 million).
KLA’s Cash Taxes, %EBITDA has exhibited a volatile overall uptrend over the period. This improvement was accompanied by a similar trend for the Kla Peer Group. In most years, KLA was in the top quartile. Currently, KLA is upper quartile at -12% of EBITDA (-$531 million).
KLA’s Business Re-investment, %EBITDA has suffered a volatile overall downtrend over the period. This downtrend was accompanied by a similar trend for the Kla Peer Group. In most years, KLA was in the second quartile and top quartile. Currently, KLA is upper quartile at -13% of EBITDA (-$557 million).
KLA’s Debt Investors, %EBITDA has experienced a volatile overall downtrend over the period. This downtrend was accompanied by a similar trend for the Kla Peer Group. In most years, KLA was in the top quartile and lower quartile. Currently, KLA is below median at -23% of EBITDA (-$1,008 million).
KLA’s Equity Investors, %EBITDA has enjoyed a volatile overall uptrend over the period. This improvement was accompanied by a similar trend for the Kla Peer Group. In most years, KLA was in the top quartile and third quartile. Currently, KLA is below median at -42% of EBITDA (-$1,869 million).
KLA’s Change in Cash, %EBITDA has experienced a volatile overall uptrend over the period. This improvement was accompanied by an opposite trend for the Kla Peer Group. In most years, KLA was in the lower quartile and top quartile. Currently, KLA is at the upper quartile at +12% of EBITDA (+$535 million).
KLA’s Cash, %Revenue has suffered a very strong overall downtrend over the period. This downtrend was accompanied by a similar trend for the Kla Peer Group. (Since 2020 Cash, %Revenue has sharply decelerated.) In most years, KLA was in the top quartile and second quartile. Currently, KLA is at median at +31%.
PROFITABILITY
KLA’s return on equity has improved very significantly since 2014. The current level of 88.9% is 5.60X the low for the period and is -13.0% from the high.
This very significant improvement was due to very strong positive trend in pretax operating return supported by strong positive trend in non-operating factors.
The productivity of KLA’s assets rose over the full period 2014-2023: asset turnover has enjoyed a strong overall uptrend.
KLA’s pretax margin enjoyed a very strong overall uptrend over the period 2014-2023.
Non-operating factors (income taxes and financial leverage) had a significant positive influence on return on equity.
KLA’s return on equity is upper quartile (88.9%) for the four quarters ended December, 2023.
Operating performance (pretax return on assets) is above median (21.8%) reflecting asset turnover that is above median (0.68X) and above median pretax margin (32.3%).
Tax “keep” rate (income tax management) is at the upper quartile (86.8%) resulting in after tax return on assets that is substantially above median.
Financial leverage (leverage) is upper quartile (4.69X).
GROWTH RATES
There are no significant differences between KLA’s longer term growth and growth in recent years.
KLA’s historical income statement growth and balance sheet growth have diverged. Revenue growth has paralleled asset growth; earnings growth has exceeded equity growth.
Annual revenue growth has been 17.6% per year.
Total asset growth has been 14.6% per year.
Annual E.P.S. growth has been 26.3% per year.
Equity growth has been 12.3% per year.
KLA’s consensus growth rate forecast (average of Wall Street analysts) is 11.2% — substantially below the average of the historical growth measures.
Relative to the Kla Peer Group, KLA’s historical growth measures are generally top quartile. Revenue growth (17.6%) has been upper quartile. Total asset growth (14.6%) has been upper quartile. E.P.S. growth (26.3%) has been upper quartile. Equity growth (12.3%) has been above median.
Consistent with this pattern, consensus growth forecast (11.2%) is also slightly above median.
PRICE HISTORY
Over the full time period, KLA’s stock price performance has been variable and exceptional. Between May, 2013 and March, 2024, KLA’s stock price rose +1115%; relative to the market, this was a +287% gain. Significant price moves during the period: 1) September, 2022 – March, 2024: +126%; 2) March, 2020 – December, 2021: +199%; and 3) September, 2015 – July, 2018: +135%.
TOTAL INVESTMENT RETURNS
Current annual total return performance of 81.7% is upper quartile relative to the S&P 500 Composite.
In addition to being upper quartile relative to S&P 500 Composite, current annual total return performance through February, 2024 of 81.7% is upper quartile relative to KLA Corp Peer Group.
Current 5-year total return performance of 44.8% is upper quartile relative to the S&P 500 Composite.
Through February, 2024, with upper quartile current 5-year total return of 44.8% relative to S&P 500 Composite, KLA’s total return performance is upper quartile relative to KLA Corp Peer Group.
VALUATION BENCHMARKS
Relative to S&P 500 Composite, KLAC’s overall valuation is quite high. The highest factor, the price/equity ratio, is upper quartile. Ratio of enterprise value/assets is upper quartile. Ratio of enterprise value/revenue is upper quartile. Price/earnings ratio is near the upper quartile. The lowest factor, the ratio of enterprise value/earnings before interest and taxes, is at the upper quartile.
Relative to KLA Peer Group, KLAC’s overall valuation is quite high. The highest factor, the price/equity ratio, is upper quartile. Ratio of enterprise value/assets is upper quartile. Ratio of enterprise value/revenue is at the upper quartile. Ratio of enterprise value/earnings before interest and taxes is above median. The lowest factor, the price/earnings ratio, is slightly above median.
KLA has a large value gap compared to the median valuation. For KLAC to achieve median valuation, its current ratio of enterprise value/revenue would have to fall from the current level of 10.19X to 8.56X. If KLAC’s ratio of enterprise value/revenue were to fall to 8.56X, its stock price would be lower by $-116 to $567.
For KLAC to fall to lower quartile valuation relative to the KLA Peer Group, its current ratio of enterprise value/revenue would have to fall from the current level of 10.19X to 4.63X. If KLAC’s ratio of enterprise value/revenue were to fall to 4.63X, its stock price would decline by $-398 from the current level of $684.
VALUE TARGETS
KLAC is expected to continue to be a major Value Builder reflecting capital returns that are forecasted to exceed the cost of capital.
KLA’s current Price Target of $932 represents a +36% change from the current price of $683.90.
This neutral appreciation potential results in an appreciation score of 50 (50% of the universe has greater appreciation potential.)
With this neutral Appreciation Score of 50, the high Power Rating of 98 results in an Value Trend Rating of A.
KLA’s current Price Target is $932 (-34% from the 2023 Target of $1415 but +36% from the 03/15/24 price of $683.90). This dramatic fall in the Target is the result of a +11% increase in the equity base and a -41% decrease in the price/equity multiple. The forecasted decline in growth has a very large negative impact on the price/equity multiple and the forecasted decline in return on equity has a very large negative impact as well. Partially offsetting these Drivers, the forecasted decline in cost of equity has a slight positive impact.
PTR’s return on equity forecast is 107.% — significantly below our recent forecasts. Forecasted return on equity enjoyed a dramatic, erratic increase between 2015 and 2023. The current forecast is significantly below the 2022 peak of 168%.
PTR’s growth forecast is 13.0% — substantially above our recent forecasts. Forecasted growth enjoyed a dramatic, steady increase between 2015 and 2023. The current forecast is significantly above the 2018 low of 0%.
PTR’s cost of equity forecast is 13.0% — in line with recent levels. Forecasted cost of equity suffered a dramatic, erratic increase between 2015 and 2023. The current forecast is above the 2017 low of 10.7%.
At KLA’s current price of $683.90, investors are placing a positive value of $535 on its future investments. This view is consistent with the company’s most recent performance that reflected a growth rate of 21.0% per year, and a return on equity of 136.0% versus a cost of equity of 13.8%.
PTR’s 2025 Price Target of $932 is based on these forecasts and reflects an estimated value of existing assets of $259 and a value of future investments of $673.
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