At the current price of $18, what is the market’s view of Nature’s Sunshine Products future operating performance? To achieve average annual stock market performance of 9.0% over the next 6 years, Nature’s Sunshine Products shares will need to reach $30. To achieve Upper quartile performance, Nature’s Sunshine Products stock price will need to reach $35 by 2028.
Executive Summary
- Price Target Research identifies Nature’s Sunshine Products as having: high expected growth, high financial strength, stability, and low profitability. A big positive influence on Nature’s Sunshine Products valuation is its superior Risk Profile.
- Very high valuation, leading shareholder returns. Current valuation levels are very high relative to the Nature’s Sunshine Products Peer Group. Recent market returns have significantly outperformed the Nature’s Sunshine Products Peer Group. Total shareholder returns expected to significantly lag the overall equity market. Based on current investor expectations, Nature’s Sunshine Products shares should reach a level of $14 by 2028 — an -4.3% per year total shareholder return. A 2028 stock price of $30 would reflect median performance and a price of $35 would be required to reach upper quartile performance.
- Historical growth has been average relative to the Nature’s Sunshine Products Peer Group and forecasted growth is relatively very high. Nature’s Sunshine Products historical income statement growth and balance sheet growth have diverged. Revenue growth has paralleled asset growth; earnings growth has exceeded equity growth resulting in an improving return on equity.
- Profitability is very high. The company has normal cash needs.
- Risk Profile has been Nature’s Sunshine Products biggest valuation strength. Nature’s Sunshine Products risk profile is very favorable. Overall variability has been very low with very low revenue variability, only average E.P.S. variability, Financial Strength is relatively high and earnings’ expectations are relatively high. The debt/capital ratio has declined very significantly.
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